EURUSD · Euro vs US dollar · Swing (1–4 weeks) · D1, H4, H1
Recorded 03/10/2026 22:41 UTC, market closed · valid until 30/10/2026, 21:00 UTC
Updated 2026-10-24
Data: D1, H4 and H1 bars from the capitalcom-demo feed (bid), up to the 02/10/2026 close; FXStreet macro calendar. Outcome: closed at +1.62R net. It goes into the record like every other.
The move since issue
up down entry stop targets invalidation
H4 bars of the series Yahoo Finance EURUSD rate (EURUSD=X), shifted to the analysis scale with the record basis (−0.00040), from six bars before issue to the end of the horizon (30/10/2026 21:00 UTC). Lines: published entry, stop, targets and invalidation levels; circles mark the recorded events. Bar source: Yahoo Finance; read on 24/10/2026. Not a forecast.
The price now
For context only. The analysis is from 03/10/2026: its levels apply to that moment, not to today’s price. Source: Binance EURUSDT, a stablecoin pair that tracks the rate closely (average gap 0.0002 versus EURUSD=X over the 72 hours measured on 09/10/2026); not the verification series, 48 hourly closes and then the live stream. Not an analysis and not an instruction.
Structure and reasoning
Levels, events and percentiles are the ones computed by the run on D1, H4 and H1 bars from the capitalcom-demo feed, up to the 02/10/2026 close; macro data come from the FXStreet calendar.
H4: the lower-low / lower-high ladder is intact (LL 1.12147 on 01/10, LH 1.12851 on 02/10). It sits inside the mid-September D1 bearish CHoCH at 1.15845.
Event quality: the only displacement-quality event in the whole window is bearish: the H1 BOS through 1.12649 on 01/10. The bullish events, including the 02/10 H1 CHoCH at 1.12693, are drift: context, not decision.
Liquidity: the 29/09 D1 sweep of 1.13242 was not reclaimed. On 02/10 the bounce ran the 1.12693 H1 high by 0.87ATR and was rejected back to a 1.12522 close.
Opposite scenario
H4 volatility is at the 99th percentile, so the move is already extended; D1 is still classified as a range.
Soft US data and hot euro-area inflation support the euro: non-farm payrolls at 29k against 90k expected, euro-area inflation at 3.8% against 3.6% expected (FXStreet calendar).
FOMC Minutes (07/10), ECB Accounts (08/10) and US CPI (14/10) all fall inside the horizon.
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